February’s jobs report just dropped, and it’s showing fewer new jobs in the United States than anticipated, which could stir things up for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate plans and, consequently, how Bitcoin’s price behaves.

Specifically, today brought us the United States Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for February. The numbers are in, and they show a less-than-stellar addition of 151,000 jobs—that’s below the 160,000 that markets were expecting.

Adding to the picture, the unemployment rate also saw a slight increase, nudging up to 4.1%. This is a touch higher than both the predicted 4.0% and the previous month’s 4.0%. This softer performance in the job market might just influence what the Federal Reserve decides to do next, and that, in turn, could affect where Bitcoin’s price is headed. 

Bitcoin Current Position

It’s worth pointing out that Bitcoin has been facing some downward pressure lately, and this is largely due to wider economic worries. Specifically, the rising concerns about potential trade disputes involving the US and countries like China, Mexico, and Canada have been making markets uneasy. 

Bitcoin briefly hit a high of $92,000 on March 6, riding a wave of optimism, but it wasn’t long before it fell back below the $90,000 mark. This dip came after President Donald Trump issued an executive order about the Bitcoin reserve. This order essentially clarified that the reserve isn’t planning to buy up Bitcoin unless it can find budget-neutral ways to do so. 

Right now, Bitcoin is trading around $89,500, showing a slight decrease of 0.37% for the day. But, this latest jobs report is now injecting a new element into the mix that could actually nudge Bitcoin back up towards that $90,000 level in the short term.

Federal Reserve’s Response to Jobs Data

To give you some background, the Federal Reserve keeps a close eye on these NFP numbers as they are a key indicator of how healthy the job market is—and that’s a major consideration when they’re deciding about interest rates. 

These weaker job numbers for February, coupled with the uptick in unemployment, hint that the economy might be starting to cool down. This kind of news could encourage the Fed to take a more cautious, or ‘dovish’, stance when it comes to monetary policy. 

Looking at history, the Fed has often adjusted interest rates based on what’s happening in the job market. For example, back in December 2024, seeing signs of a slowing job market, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (that’s 0.25%), bringing the federal funds rate down to a range of 4.25%–4.50%. That was actually their third rate cut that year. 

The goal of that rate cut was to help boost economic growth at a time when employment growth seemed to be slowing. Going back even further, the Fed was aggressively raising rates throughout 2022 and into early 2023 to fight inflation, pushing rates up to a peak of 5.25%–5.50%. But then, as inflation started to calm down, they shifted gears and started cutting rates instead.

Bitcoin Could Leverage Rate Cuts

The next big event on the calendar is the Fed meeting on March 18–19, 2025. This meeting is likely to be key in determining the immediate direction of monetary policy. Right now, most market watchers are predicting that the Fed will probably hold interest rates steady, considering that the labor market is still looking reasonably healthy, but not running too hot. 

However, these weaker-than-expected job numbers from February might just shake things up and change those expectations. Specifically, if upcoming economic reports also point to a continued weakening trend, we could see the Fed deciding to cut rates by 25 basis points as early as their March or May meeting. 

Generally, lower interest rates tend to make the US dollar weaker and also push down Treasury yields. This combination can create a more appealing environment for riskier assets like Bitcoin. Investors often look to cryptocurrencies when interest rates are lower because they anticipate more money flowing into the market and potentially lower returns from more traditional, safer investments.

Historically, Bitcoin’s price movements have often been linked to shifts in Federal Reserve policy. We saw this in action when the Fed cut rates in late 2024. Bitcoin responded with a significant rally, jumping from around $70,000 in November all the way to $108,000 by December. 

The possibility of another rate cut on the horizon could certainly spark bullish momentum for Bitcoin, particularly if the dollar continues to weaken. On the other hand, if the Fed decides that the job market is still strong enough to postpone easing monetary policy, Bitcoin might find itself stuck in a period of consolidation below that $90,000 mark for a while longer.