Crypto analyst Ali Martinez is pointing out a potentially critical moment for Dogecoin (DOGE). Looking at its long-term price chart – which many have seen circulating on X and in a breakdown on YouTube Shorts—we can see DOGE trading within an ascending parallel channel. This channel has actually been guiding its price movements all the way back since 2014! Right now, this meme-inspired crypto is sitting just above a crucial support level. If this level breaks, we could see a pretty significant price drop.

Uh Oh, Dogecoin Crash Ahead?

Martinez highlights a pattern in this long-term channel: every time DOGE has bounced off the lower edge of this channel, it’s climbed up towards the upper resistance. On the flip side, when DOGE hasn’t been able to push past the channel’s top, it’s historically fallen back down to that lower boundary. This cycle has kept repeating, including during the big price swings of 2017–2018 and 2021. This really shows just how important this channel’s lower trendline is for keeping Dogecoin’s overall upward trend intact.

Looking closer at Martinez’s chart, you’ll also see Fibonacci retracement and extension levels marked out. These help pinpoint historically important price points. Specifically, we’re talking about levels like 0.236 Fib (around $0.0068), 0.382 Fib (around $0.0159), and so on, up to 1.414 Fib (around $6.24). Interestingly, the zone around $0.16–$0.19 is where the lower boundary of the ascending channel meets up with the higher end of the Fibonacci range, near $0.1650. That makes this area even more significant!

In his recent YouTube Shorts video, Martinez issued a warning: if Dogecoin decisively breaks below that $0.19 support, things could get rough. He suggests we could see a sharp drop all the way down to $0.015, which lines up with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.

He explained, “Dogecoin could really crash if it loses this support level. It’s been trading within this ascending channel since way back in 2014. Usually, Dogecoin bounces up from the channel’s lower support line towards the resistance line above, and then it tends to fall back down to the lower support again, restarting the cycle. But right now, Dogecoin is at a critical point. If it breaks below that $0.19 support, it might just trigger a correction all the way down to $0.015.”

Just a few days prior, he mentioned on X that as long as the channel’s lower edge at $0.16 holds firm, Dogecoin still has a chance to bounce back upwards, maybe even towards the middle of the channel or even up to the top trendline. “DOGE is still moving within that ascending parallel channel,” Martinez pointed out. “As long as it stays above the $0.16 lower boundary, a rebound to the mid-channel at $2.74 or even the upper boundary at $6.24 is still on the table!”

However, this optimistic outlook depends entirely on DOGE holding onto this crucial support area. If the price definitely falls below $0.16–$0.19, that would likely signal a major shift to a bearish trend. This could pave the way for that significant price correction Martinez is talking about, possibly pushing prices back down to around $0.015 and wiping out a lot of Dogecoin’s gains from previous cycles.

As of right now, DOGE is trading at $0.20.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Source: newsbtc.com