Bitcoin Bearish Fischer Transform: First Time Since 2021
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According to technical expert Tony Severino, the crypto market might be signaling a shift. He’s highlighted that the Bitcoin and altcoins Fischer Transform indicator has turned bearish for the first time since 2021. Let’s delve into what this could mean for the crypto landscape and how it might affect your digital assets.
Bitcoin And Altcoins Fischer Transform Indicator Turns Bearish
Severino shared in a recent post on X that the 12-week Fisher Transform for the total crypto market cap has flipped to bearish territory. This is a significant event, as it hasn’t happened since December 2021, and before that, January 2018. Historically, these bearish flips have preceded substantial market downturns. In 2021 and 2018, the total crypto market cap experienced drops of 66% and 82%, respectively. This historical pattern suggests a potentially bearish future for Bitcoin and altcoins, hinting at a possible significant price correction on the horizon.
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Expanding on his analysis, the technical expert further pointed out that Bitcoin’s own 12-week Fischer Transform indicator has also turned bearish. Severino explained that this indicator works by transforming price data into a Gaussian normal distribution, effectively smoothing out fluctuations and removing noise. This process helps to create clearer signals that can identify key turning points in the market.
Severino emphasizes the reliability of this 12-week indicator, stating it has consistently identified market tops and bottoms. This latest bearish signal suggests that Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market may indeed have reached a peak. The expert has been indicating for some time now that a Bitcoin top could be forming, and this bearish indicator further supports his outlook of a potentially significant downturn for the leading cryptocurrency.
To further illustrate his viewpoint, he’s recently referenced the Elliott Wave Theory and market cycles to explain his shift away from a bullish stance on Bitcoin and altcoins. He also points to other indicators, like the Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) and Average Directional Index (ADX), which suggest that Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is waning. Severino even cautions that a sell signal triggered by these combined factors could push BTC into a Supertrend DownTrend, potentially leading to a price drop as low as $22,000.
A Different Perspective For BTC
However, not all analysts share this bearish outlook. Crypto analyst Kevin Capital offers a contrasting perspective on Bitcoin’s current price action. While acknowledging that Bitcoin is currently in a correctional phase, Kevin Capital believes this phase is nearing its end. For him, the key question isn’t *if* this correction will end, but rather how strong Bitcoin’s subsequent rebound will be. Will Bitcoin push to new all-time highs, or will it experience a weaker rally followed by a longer bear market?
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Kevin Capital further suggests that Bitcoin’s price movement in the coming period will be discernible through various indicators, including money flow, macro fundamentals, and overall spot volume. Currently, market attention is largely focused on macro fundamentals, particularly the anticipated announcement of Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, expected tomorrow.
As of now, the price of Bitcoin is hovering around $83,000, reflecting an approximate 1% increase over the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
