Bitcoin Macro Index Bearish Signal: $110K Bitcoin Rally in Doubt
Bitcoin
is showing signs that it could be heading into another bear market. This concern arises from a “bearish divergence” detected across various Bitcoin price metrics.
Bitcoin analysts recently highlighted these potentially worrying indicators from the Capriole Investments’ Bitcoin Macro Index in a social media discussion on March 27.
Bitcoin Macro Index slump “not great,” says creator
BTC/USD is currently finding it tough to climb back towards its all-time highs, and it seems on-chain metrics are also starting to lose their bullish momentum.
The Capriole Bitcoin Macro Index, which was developed in 2022, employs machine learning to examine a wide array of data points. According to its creator, Charles Edwards, these metrics are designed to “provide solid insights into Bitcoin’s value throughout its historical cycles.”
Edwards explained when introducing the index that, “The model… uniquely, price data and technical analysis is not considered as an input in this model.” It focuses solely on on-chain and macro-market data.”
Interestingly, since late 2023, this index has shown a pattern of “bearish divergence”—making lower highs even as Bitcoin’s price reaches higher highs. While this has occurred in past bull markets, it could suggest that BTC/USD might have already reached its peak for this cycle.
Reacting to a user’s post of the Index on X, Edwards simply stated, “Not great.”
“But… when Bitcoin Macro Index turns positive, I won’t be fighting it.”
Capriole Bitcoin Macro Index. Source: @A_Trade_Academy/X
BTC price metrics struggle to recover
Multiple analysts are suggesting that Bitcoin is experiencing some macroeconomic headwinds this year.
Related: Bitcoin price prediction markets bet BTC won’t go higher than $138K in 2025
CryptoQuant, a leading on-chain analytics platform, pointed to four on-chain metrics currently showing uncertain signals in a recent “Quicktake” blog post this week.
Burak Kesmeci, a contributor at CryptoQuant, noted, “All of these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is experiencing significant turbulence in the short to mid-term.”
“However, none of them indicate that Bitcoin has reached an overheated or cycle-top level.”
Bitcoin IFP chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
These metrics include the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and Net Unspent Profit/Loss (NUPL), as well as the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP)—the latter of which turned bearish in February.
Kesmeci concluded that for the situation to improve, the IFP would need to climb back above its 90-day simple moving average (SMA).
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
