Bitcoin Rally on Global Chaos, Bitwise Predicts

Executives at Bitwise are saying Bitcoin presents a “generational opportunity” right now. They believe this is especially true as the Trump administration might shake up global trade, and as economic signals suggest central banks could be about to flood markets with cash.
Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise Asset Management, didn’t hold back on X (formerly Twitter) on February 16th. He tweeted that, “The world is literally on the brink of max chaos.”
Park went on to explain his reasoning. He pointed to the House Republican budget proposal from February 12th, which aims to increase the debt limit by a massive $4 trillion. This could lead to a significant boost in government spending. He also highlighted the growing trend of deglobalization, particularly Donald Trump’s recently heightened threats of reciprocal tariffs.
Park also mentioned what he jokingly called upcoming “max retardation” in the markets. He’s keeping an eye on potential risks like a “gold run,” the GOP’s substantial tax cuts possibly reaching $4.5 trillion, and what he anticipates to be imminent yield curve control (YCC). For those unfamiliar with YCC, it’s when a central bank gets involved to manage long-term interest rates, hoping to encourage more borrowing and investment.
However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently tempered expectations for any near-term interest rate cuts. On February 11th, he told the Senate Banking Committee that the US economy is “remaining strong” and that there’s “no need to rush” into adjusting rates.
Adding to the optimistic view, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley posted on X on February 16th, “People are wildly underestimating the massive leaps Bitcoin is going to take into the mainstream this year. Never been more optimistic.”
Park chimed in again, emphasizing Bitcoin’s current appeal by saying, “And BTC IV percentile is lowest all year and you dont see this generational opportunity so no we are not the same.” He’s talking about Bitcoin’s implied volatility percentile, which basically tells you how often Bitcoin’s volatility has been lower than its current level over the past year.
implied volatility percentile — the percentage of days over the past year where its volatility was below its current level.
Currently, Bitcoin’s volatility index is around 50.90, a decrease from its yearly peak of 71.28. Its IV percentile is at 12.3, according to data from Deribit.
Despite the positive outlook, Bitcoin’s price has seen a slight dip recently. It’s down a little over 1.5% in the last 24 hours, trading at just above $96,000, according to CoinGecko.
So far this year, Bitcoin has largely traded between $90,000 and $100,000, though it did briefly reach a high of $108,786 late last month around the time of Trump’s inauguration.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, is currently at 51 out of 100 as of February 17th. This “Neutral” score indicates a shift from “Fear” seen last week, although it’s less positive than market sentiment from last month.