Bitcoin: Record CME Gap Signals Potential Price Volatility
Following US President Donald Trump’s announcement on March 2nd regarding a crypto strategic reserve, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has registered an event of remarkable proportions: its largest Bitcoin futures gap ever recorded.
Fueled by this announcement, over $300 billion poured into spot markets, resulting in a substantial $10,000 gap in CME Bitcoin futures, according to data from TradingView.
This record-breaking gap significantly dwarfs the previous high of just over $4,000, which was noted in August 2024, as highlighted by Asymmetric founder Joe McCann on March 2nd.
Bitcoin
itself experienced a significant jump, climbing from around $85,000 to almost $95,000 on March 2nd. This surge coincided with Trump’s remarks indicating that a US crypto reserve would include Bitcoin and other digital assets.
CME futures gaps. Source: Joe McCann
Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that “Bitcoin has officially closed the CME gap that existed between $92,800 and $94,000.” This filling of the gap refers back to the one that emerged last week when spot markets experienced a downturn.
He further explained that Bitcoin had actually managed to fill two CME gaps within a single week. However, he noted with a touch of irony, “But in doing so, Bitcoin has also created a massive brand new CME Gap somewhere between $84,650 and $94,000.”
To clarify, the CME Bitcoin futures gap is essentially the price difference that arises between the close of CME Bitcoin futures trading on Friday and their reopening on Sunday evening.
These price gaps occur because, unlike traditional markets like the CME which take weekends off, the crypto market operates 24/7. Traders keep a close eye on these gaps as they can potentially act as future support or resistance levels for Bitcoin’s price.
Related: CME Group reports record crypto volumes for Q4
A widely held belief among traders is that these CME gaps usually get “filled” eventually. This means the price tends to gravitate back to the price levels within the gap – in this instance, around $85,000. However, it’s important to remember that this “filling” process can sometimes take months, a pattern observed in past market cycles.
Crypto YouTuber “Sommi,” commented on X, bringing historical context by stating, “In the previous 2021 bull cycle, we had two big gaps that only came back to get filled in the bear market.”
In a related market movement, Bitcoin’s dominance saw a decrease, slipping from 55.4% down below 50%, as altcoins experienced gains.
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