Bitcoin: Tariffs Drive Crypto’s Future
Good morning, crypto enthusiasts! Welcome to your US Morning Crypto Briefing—think of this as your daily download on everything you need to know in the crypto world before you dive into your day.
Let’s get straight to it. Grab that coffee because we’re looking at Bitcoin flexing its muscles while Wall Street is feeling the jitters. We’ll break down why Trump’s tariff policies are potentially pushing the Fed toward printing more money and what that whole situation could mean for crypto’s next big move. Plus, we’re checking in on Ethereum’s resilience and the increasing chatter about a possible US recession. Ready to get ahead of the curve? Let’s dive into today’s crypto briefing.
Bitcoin Enters Its Risk-Dynamic Era Amid Tariffs and Turmoil
Something interesting is happening with Bitcoin. Amid all the recent global economic shocks, especially Trump’s new tariffs, Bitcoin’s reaction has been surprisingly chill, especially when you compare it to the wild ride traditional markets are on. Wall Street’s been stumbling more than anyone predicted, but crypto? Crypto’s been holding its own, relatively speaking.
Stella Zlatarev, Nexo Dispatch Editor, chatted with BeInCrypto and shared her perspective that this isn’t just a lucky streak—it might actually signal a new phase of maturity for Bitcoin in the market.
“Honestly, a 2–3% dip in crypto these days? That’s practically nothing compared to the rollercoaster rides we’ve seen in the past,” she pointed out. She emphasized that this calm amidst the storm suggests Bitcoin is being seen differently by big players. “Bitcoin’s ability to shrug off macro craziness without the dramatic swings of previous years really makes you think institutional investors are starting to see it less as a risky bet and more as a smart strategic play,” Zlatarev explained.
And it’s not just about stability; analysts are also scratching their heads because Bitcoin isn’t behaving like the usual suspects in the asset world.
“It’s definitely not acting like gold, and it’s not mirroring the yen either. Instead, Bitcoin is shaping up to be a ‘risk-dynamic’ asset – it’s not going to collapse like those high-growth stocks the moment things get shaky, but at the same time, it’s not exactly drawing in the same ‘flight-to-safety’ money as traditional safe-haven assets,” Zlatarev mentioned in her conversation with BeInCrypto.
This idea of Bitcoin as a “risk-dynamic” asset puts it in a unique position—it’s something that can actually do well when things are uncertain but doesn’t completely fall apart when the market takes a downturn. Interesting, right?
Zlatarev from Nexo also highlighted that the next moves of Ethereum and other major altcoins will be crucial to watch.
“If ETH follows Bitcoin’s lead and shows similar resilience, it really strengthens the argument that these top-tier crypto assets are maturing into something more predictable and reliable. But, if ETH stumbles while BTC stands strong, it just reinforces that, for the moment, Bitcoin is operating on a different level altogether.”
Meanwhile, zooming out to the bigger picture, the macro environment is shifting rapidly. Trump’s newly announced “Liberation Day” tariffs have definitely rattled global trade and are sending shockwaves through prediction markets. Polymarket, for example, is now showing almost a 50% chance of a US recession this year—that’s a significant jump since the tariff announcement.
And that’s not all – the CME FedWatch Tool is showing that interest rate traders are now betting on an increased probability of the US Federal Reserve making as many as *four* interest rate cuts this year. Down the line, this kind of shift could actually ease the current macroeconomic pressure weighing on Bitcoin.
Adding to the mix, former BitMex CEO Arthur Hayes pointed out that Trump’s tariff strategy could throw a wrench in the gears of the US bond market. Basically, all eyes are on the Fed and the pressure is mounting for them to step in—possibly by turning on the money printer, aka, increasing liquidity again.
So, where does this leave Bitcoin? Well, it’s suddenly in the spotlight. Its stability isn’t being brushed off as just luck anymore. This could be the first real indication that crypto, or at least the major players in the game, is starting to move beyond just speculative hype and stepping into the world of strategic finance.
Chart of the Day
Basically, by potentially reducing the demand for US Treasuries from overseas, Trump’s tariffs might just push the Fed to inject more cash into the system—which could weaken the dollar and, in turn, boost Bitcoin as people look for alternative places to store value.
Byte-Sized Alpha
– Quick update: Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs are now in effect, slapping a 10%+ tax on all imports, hitting major players like China, the EU, and Israel. Markets are reacting with drops and recession worries are spiking.
– Heads up! Standard Chartered is making some bold predictions: they think Bitcoin could skyrocket to $500,000 by the end of Trump’s term. They also see AVAX potentially 10x-ing by 2029, though they’ve dialed back their Ethereum target for 2025 to $4,000.
– Keep an eye on this: The STABLE Act of 2025 is moving forward with support from both sides of the aisle. It’s aiming to tighten the rules around stablecoins as competition heats up and regulators get more involved.
– Bitcoin ETF Watch: ETFs saw a solid $221 million in inflows in April, with ARKB leading the charge. However, BTC derivatives are cooling off a bit, with futures interest dipping and options sentiment turning slightly bearish.
– Dollar Dive: The DXY index hit a 2024 low after the “Liberation Day” tariffs. This is fueling hopes for a short-term Bitcoin rally amidst all the global uncertainty and policy shifts.
– Bitcoin’s Battle: BTC is struggling to break past $85,000 right now due to some shaky sentiment. But, long-term Bitcoin holders are staying put, which is keeping major sell-off fears at bay for now.
– Recession Watch: Polymarket is showing almost a 50% chance of a US recession, as Trump’s tariffs spark market jitters and trade tensions escalate.
Disclaimer
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