Bitcoin (BTC) has had investors scratching their heads in early 2025. February turned out to be a month of price consolidation, leaving many wondering what’s next. After initial hopes for a strong surge at the beginning of the year, the market is now considering if we might be heading into a bear market.

But don’t lose heart yet! Zooming out and looking at Bitcoin’s historical price cycles, technical analysis from experts like TradingShot suggests BTC is still on course to hit a new record high of $200,000. You can check out TradingShot’s recent analysis on TradingView for the details.

So, even though we’re seeing some short-term dips, the bigger picture, based on past patterns, still points towards a bullish future for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s Market Cycle: Still Pointing Upwards

Let’s dive deeper into those historical patterns. When we examine Bitcoin’s price history, we see that each bull run tends to follow a predictable parabolic path. Interestingly, as Bitcoin matures, these cycles seem to become less volatile.

Take the Mayer Multiple (MM), for example. It’s a handy indicator that tells us how Bitcoin’s current price compares to its historical averages. Recently, Bitcoin’s price slipped below the MM 1 Standard Deviation (1SD) line. Historically, in previous cycles, Bitcoin tended to stay above this level for a longer period before major trend shifts.

Even with this recent dip, looking at the overall parabolic growth pattern, it seems Bitcoin’s cycles are evolving to be less extreme as time goes on.

In the early days, Bitcoin’s bull runs would even push past the MM 3SD line! But during the 2021 bull market, it only reached the MM 2SD mark. This suggests that while the upside might be more measured now, there’s still significant potential for growth in the current cycle.

When Could Bitcoin Peak? Bull Cycle Timing and Price Targets

Historically, Bitcoin cycles have been quite consistent, lasting about 1,064 days (or 152 weeks) from the bottom of a bear market to the peak of the bull run. This pattern suggests we could see a potential cycle peak around October 6, 2025. While Bitcoin might not reach the same MM 2SD level as in past cycles due to the lower volatility, the current path still indicates a possible $200,000 price target by the end of the year.

Adding even more fuel to the bullish fire, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju is also staying positive about Bitcoin’s long-term future, despite the recent market jitters.

He pointed out that even if Bitcoin sees a 30% correction from a new all-time high, dropping to around $77,000, it wouldn’t automatically signal a bear market. Instead, he views such a drop as a typical pullback within a larger bull cycle, still keeping Bitcoin comfortably above its previous cycle’s peak.

Current BTC Price Check-Up

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $94,775, having dipped by 1.45% over the past week. Market sentiment is currently being affected by economic uncertainties and ongoing trade tensions.

Adding to the cautious mood, institutional interest seems to be cooling off a bit. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of $540 million last week, which has raised some eyebrows about potentially decreasing investor appetite.

However, despite these short-term challenges, analysts are still holding onto their optimistic outlook, mainly because historical cycles suggest we could still see a rally towards new all-time highs.

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