• ENA’s price saw some ups and downs recently. It initially climbed by 1.89%, moving from $0.4020 to $0.4096, before sellers pushed it back down to $0.3790.
• Interestingly, the amount of open positions for ENA futures on the CME exchange jumped to $120,000 on March 6th, 2025. This happened right as Bitcoin was hitting $65,000.

Cryptocurrency Ethena [ENA] recently made a significant move by unlocking 2.07 billion Ethena tokens. This massive release, valued at $740.71 million, has substantially increased the number of ENA tokens available in the market.

This unlock event, coupled with large sums of money being deposited into major cryptocurrency exchanges by big investors, has sparked curiosity and concern about how ENA’s price might react and whether the market will remain stable.

The Ethena unlock

Back on March 5th, 2025, Ethena made headlines by releasing a whopping 2.07 billion Ethena tokens into circulation. This influx represented a significant 39.17% of the total Ethena supply. Right after this unlock, large investors swiftly moved 125 million ENA – a cool $45 million worth – to major exchanges like Binance, Bybit, and FalconX.

Historically, when similar large token unlocks occur, it’s often been followed by price drops. This is usually because the increased supply can dilute the market, and investors might sell off their newly unlocked tokens to take profits. The sheer volume of Ethena being deposited now suggests that these investors might be preparing for a potential downturn, either by hedging their bets or simply cashing in on their gains.

While this large influx of tokens could weaken the price, there’s a chance that the market could absorb this new supply if demand for ENA is strong enough. If buyers step up and soak up the extra tokens, the market could stabilize over the long term. However, if sellers continue to dominate, ENA’s price might be pushed down to test even lower levels, potentially even falling to around $0.30.

This pattern of deposit surges preceding price corrections isn’t new; it’s something we’ve seen play out with other altcoin unlocks in the past.

Navigating ENA’s market swings

Looking at recent trading, ENA’s price has been quite bouncy. It briefly gained 1.89%, climbing from $0.4020 to $0.4096, but then faced selling pressure, pulling it back down to $0.3790. The Volatility Index is currently at 0.3769, which tells us we’re in a period of moderate price swings.

At the same time, the aggregated spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) has been on a downward trend, decreasing from -108.707M to -107.359M, and then further to -107.07M. This negative CVD indicates that sellers are currently more active and in control of the market than buyers.

Source: TradingView

This ongoing selling pressure, as indicated by the declining CVD, might be making traders hesitant to buy aggressively. The sustained selling momentum suggests that there could be more price drops ahead.

If the CVD were to turn around and become positive, it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially lead to a recovery up to $0.4200. On the flip side, if volatility increases beyond 0.4000 and the CVD remains weak, ENA’s price could continue downwards, possibly testing the $0.3500 level.

This current situation looks quite similar to what happened recently with ADA’s price drop, where similar negative CVD trends were seen just before further price declines.

ENA Market sentiment and price implications

Looking at market sentiment, ENA’s CME Futures Open Interest (OI) saw a significant jump, reaching $120,000 on March 6th, 2025, which happened at the same time Bitcoin’s price climbed to $65,000. Leading up to this, the OI had been growing steadily, rising from $20,000 to $100,000 in the weeks prior, even touching a peak of $110,000 in late February.

This upward trend in Open Interest suggests that traders are increasingly using leverage when trading ENA futures. It’s also interesting to note that this increased interest seems to be closely following Bitcoin’s price movements around the $60,000 mark.

Source: CoinGlass

If the Open Interest stays at these high levels, it could mean that bullish sentiment is strong, and there’s a potential for $ENA to climb towards $0.4500. However, if the OI were to suddenly drop below $50,000, it could trigger a wave of liquidations, which might then drag prices downwards, possibly as low as $0.3800.

In summary, Ethena’s recent token unlock has injected a significant amount of new supply into the market, increasing selling pressure. We saw 125 million tokens moved to exchanges, likely by investors looking to secure profits.

While $ENA did initially experience a small 1.89% price bump, the declining CVD suggests that underlying selling pressure is still present and could continue to influence price movements.